GTM Research: ITC extension would grow the U.S. solar market 54% through 2020

first_imgGTM Research: ITC extension would grow the U.S. solar market 54% through 2020An analysis by GTM Research shows that an additional 25 GW of solar PV will be installed in the U.S. over the next five years if the ITC is extended via the current spending bill in Congress. December 16, 2015 Christian Roselund Legal Markets Markets & Policy Share One thing that most of the U.S. solar industry can agree upon is that extension of the federal 30% Investment Tax Credit (ITC) would have a big impact on the U.S. solar market. However, just how big of an impact is a matter of wide speculation. Today GTM Research put some numbers to this, by forecasting that if the tax credit is extended through 2020 per the language in the current omnibus spending bill, then PV installations will grow to 20 GW annually by 2020. This will include $40 billion more in incremental solar investment between 2016 and 2020. According to the company’s forecast, under this scenario 2017 installations would be higher than 2015 levels. However, GTM Research’s forecast of roughly 10 GW to be installed in 2017 would still be a decline from around 13 GW in 2016. This is due to the impact of plans already made by developers based on the expectation that the ITC will expire. The company expects a particularly sharp impact for utility-scale sector PV, and for ITC extension to increase deployment in this sector 73% through 2020. GTM Research also expects that given current price trends, ITC extension will likely result in utility-scale solar contracts being regularly signed at under US$0.04 per kilowatt-hour over the next two years. This would mean solar clearly beating new natural gas generation on price, and could further the dominance of solar over other conventional generation. In the residential solar market, the company expects a 35% increase versus no extension, and a 51% growth in commercial solar.Popular content The Hydrogen Stream: 20 MW green hydrogen plant in Finland, two Australian projects move forward Sergio Matalucci 20 April 2021 pv-magazine.com Storegga, Shell and Harbour Energy want to set up a 20 MW blue hydrogen production facility in the U.K. Australia’s Origin Energy wants to build a hy… Enabling aluminum in batteries Mark Hutchins 27 April 2021 pv-magazine.com Scientists in South Korea and the UK demonstrated a new cathode material for an aluminum-ion battery, which achieved impressive results in both speci… ITRPV: Large formats are here to stay Mark Hutchins 29 April 2021 pv-magazine.com The 2021 edition of the International Technology Roadmap for Photovoltaics (ITRPV) was published today by German engineering association VDMA. 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The re… Solar park built on rough wooden structures comes online in France Gwénaëlle Deboutte 26 April 2021 pv-magazine.com French company Céléwatt energized its 250 kW ground-mounted array, built with mounting structures made of raw oak wood.April 26, 2021 Gwénaëlle Debo… Spanish developer plans 1 GW solar plant coupled to 80 MW of storage, 100 MW electrolyzer Pilar Sánchez Molina 22 April 2021 pv-magazine.com Soto Solar has submitted the project proposal to the Ecological Transition and the Demographic Challenge (Miteco). The solar plant could start produc… We all trust the PV performance ratio test Dario Brivio, Partner 20 April 2021 pv-magazine.com The performance ratio test is at the core of the handover from EPC to owner. Yet sometimes, even when best practice is applied – and without particul… The Hydrogen Stream: 20 MW green hydrogen plant in Finland, two Australian projects move forward Sergio Matalucci 20 April 2021 pv-magazine.com Storegga, Shell and Harbour Energy want to set up a 20 MW blue hydrogen production facility in the U.K. Australia’s Origin Energy wants to build a hy… 123456Share Christian Roselund Christian Roselund served as US editor at pv magazine from 2014 to 2019. 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